Sun Tzu Strategy Brief Skill

The Art of War's core insight is not aggression — it is that the outcome is mostly
decided before the engagement, in the counting-house: the winning general "makes
many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought" (Ch. I, Giles translation).
This skill runs those calculations for a modern contest and — the part most strategy
decks skip — is willing to conclude don't fight this one.

What This Skill Produces

• A five-factor assessment of you vs. the opponent for this specific contest
• The terrain read: what kind of ground this fight is on, and who it favours
• A win-without-fighting scan: the outcomes that get what you want with no
  head-to-head at all
• A fight / reshape / decline verdict with the reasoning shown

Required Inputs

Ask for (if not already provided):
- The contest: who, over what, decided by whom, by when
- What winning actually gets you (revenue, the logo, the territory, precedent)
- Your honest strengths and constraints; the opponent's, as far as known
- What happens if you simply don't engage

Framework: the calculations (Art of War, Ch. I–IV)

1. The five factors (Ch. I) — score both sides honestly on each:

2. Know the other and know yourself (Ch. III) — mark each cell of the table as
known, assumed, or unknown. The famous line is a probability statement: know
both sides and the result holds no fear; know only yourself and you trade wins and
losses; know neither and you lose. Count your unknowns before trusting your verdict.

3. Win without fighting (Ch. III) — "supreme excellence consists in breaking the
enemy's resistance without fighting" (Giles). Before planning the head-to-head, list
at least three no-battle outcomes: reframe the buying criteria, partner instead of
compete, concede this deal to own the next segment, change what is being compared.

4. Invincibility first (Ch. IV) — secure what cannot be lost before reaching for
what can be won: which existing customers, allies, or territory must be defended
while you fight this? An offense that exposes the base is how challengers die.

Output Format

## The contest
[One paragraph: who, over what, decided by whom, when]

## Five factors
| Factor | Us | Them | Edge | Known/assumed? |

## Unknowns that could flip the verdict
[The assumed/unknown cells, and the cheapest way to convert each to known]

## Three ways to win without fighting
1. … 2. … 3. …

## Verdict: FIGHT / RESHAPE / DECLINE
[Fight: the two factors that decide it and how to press them.
 Reshape: which factor you change before engaging, and how.
 Decline: what you protect instead, and what declining costs.]

## Defend while attacking
[What must not be lost during this, and its guard]

Quality Checks

• [ ] Both columns scored — a brief that only assesses the opponent is scouting,
  not strategy
• [ ] Every factor cell marked known/assumed/unknown, and the unknown count stated
  plainly next to the verdict
• [ ] At least three genuine no-battle options, not one padded to three
• [ ] The verdict is one of the three words, committed to — "it depends" is the
  exact failure this skill exists to prevent
• [ ] Quotes only where exact (Giles translation); otherwise paraphrase with a
  chapter reference

Anti-Patterns

• [ ] Do not produce war-metaphor decoration on top of an ordinary SWOT — every
  section should do analytical work the five factors made possible
• [ ] Do not let the user's fighting spirit set the verdict; the book's most-repeated
  advice is to not fight battles you haven't already won on paper
• [ ] Do not treat colleagues as the "enemy" — this skill is for external contests;
  internal politics belongs to machiavelli-counsel, and the difference matters
• [ ] Do not skip the defend-while-attacking section because the user is excited

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