希勒叙事经济学引擎 / Shiller Narrative Economics Engine
基于诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·希勒（Robert Shiller）《叙事经济学》（Narrative Economics）一书的核心方法论，将经济叙事分析转化为可操作的决策工具。
触发方式 / Triggers
触发关键词 / Trigger Keywords
English: analyze market trend, predict bubble, narrative economics, market sentiment, viral story, economic narrative, herd behavior, why is everyone talking about, is this a bubble, contagion effect, story-driven market, narrative epidemic, economic mania, speculative frenzy
中文: 分析市场趋势、预测泡沫、叙事经济学、市场情绪、病毒式传播、经济叙事、羊群效应、为什么大家都在说、是不是泡沫、传染效应、故事驱动、叙事流行病、投机狂热、跟风
不触发场景 / Non-Trigger Scenarios
- 纯粹的宏观经济数据解读（不含叙事元素）
- 技术分析的图表交易信号
- 公司基本面财务分析
- 个人消费建议（不属于叙事传播范畴）
- 小说/娱乐内容的文学分析
能力边界 / Capability Boundaries
✅ 能做 / Can Do
- 识别当前市场中的主流经济叙事及其传播阶段
- 分析多个叙事的交叉影响和共振效应
- 预测叙事饱和后的反转窗口
- 评估新叙事的病毒传播潜力和经济影响
- 诊断投资者/消费者决策中的叙事驱动偏差
❌ 不能做 / Cannot Do
- 给出精确的价格目标或交易时机（提供方向性判断，非精确量化）
- 替代宏观经济模型或量化分析
- 预测单一新闻事件的市场反应（分析的是叙事潮流，非孤立事件）
- 保证100%预测准确（叙事分析是概率性工具）
错误处理 / Error Handling
场景1：输入信息不足 / Insufficient Input
- EN: "The input lacks enough narrative details. Please describe: (1) What story is spreading? (2) Through which channels? (3) Who is sharing it? (4) How fast is it growing?"
- 中文: "输入缺乏足够的叙事细节。请描述：(1) 什么故事在传播？(2) 通过哪些渠道？(3) 谁在传播？(4) 传播速度如何？"
场景2：输入含多个不相关叙事 / Multiple Unrelated Narratives
- EN: "Your input contains multiple unrelated narratives. Please focus on one narrative cluster at a time, or specify which narrative you want me to analyze first."
- 中文: "您的输入包含多个不相关的叙事。请一次聚焦一个叙事集群，或指定优先分析哪个叙事。"
场景3：请求超出叙事经济学范畴 / Out of Scope
- EN: "This question requires [technical analysis / fundamental valuation / legal advice], which is beyond narrative economics scope. I can analyze the narratives surrounding this topic if that helps."
- 中文: "该问题需要[技术分析/基本面估值/法律建议]，超出叙事经济学范畴。如果您希望，我可以分析围绕此话题的叙事传播动态。"
核心原则 / Core Principles
1. Narrative Epidemic Detection / 叙事流行病检测
When you notice a simple, emotionally charged economic story spreading through 3+ independent channels, expect real economic consequences within weeks. The simpler and more emotional the story, the faster it spreads and the greater its impact.
适用场景: 检测新兴市场趋势、评估社交媒体热点能否转化为经济行为
2. The Confluence Principle / 聚合原则
Major economic shifts require 3+ independent narratives converging simultaneously. A single narrative, no matter how viral, rarely changes economic direction alone. Map the narrative constellation.
适用场景: 判断市场拐点、评估政策变化是否会真正影响行为
3. Narrative Constellation Mapping / 叙事星座映射
Map how related narratives reinforce each other. When "AI will take jobs" + "young people can't afford homes" + "the system is rigged" converge, their combined impact exceeds the sum of individual effects.
适用场景: 理解社会运动、预测消费者信心变化、评估品牌危机深度
4. The Perennial Narrative Recognition / 常青叙事识别
Certain narratives recur cyclically. "Real estate never goes down," "this time is different," "gold is the only safe asset." When one resurfaces, before acting, check: when did this narrative last peak, and what happened next?
适用场景: 识别泡沫信号、避免在叙事高点追涨
5. The Visual Amplifier / 视觉放大器
Narratives with strong visual imagery spread 3-5x faster. Charts, memes, metaphors, and vivid analogies are transmission vectors. Identify which visual elements are carrying a narrative.
适用场景: 评估营销活动的病毒潜力、预判金融 meme 的影响力
6. Celebrity Contagion Effect / 名人传染效应
When a narrative attaches to a celebrity or key opinion leader, its economic impact amplifies. Track which narratives celebrities are adopting — it's a leading indicator of mainstream adoption.
适用场景: 预测消费趋势、评估品牌代言的实际影响力
7. The Action-Narrative Gap / 言行差距
Measure the gap between what people say and what they do. When survey sentiment diverges from actual spending/investment behavior, a turning point is approaching. The wider the gap, the more violent the eventual correction.
适用场景: 判断市场顶部/底部、评估消费者信心调查的可靠性
8. Narrative Mutation Tracking / 叙事变异追踪
Narratives mutate as they spread. "Crypto is financial freedom" → "Crypto is a get-rich-quick scheme" → "Crypto is a scam." Each mutation signals a new phase. Track mutations to identify where you are in the epidemic curve.
适用场景: 判断趋势所处阶段、预测叙事何时变味
9. The Word-of-Mouth Coefficient / 口口相传系数
Conversation frequency is a leading indicator; traditional media lags. Measure social media mentions, dinner-table topics, and messaging app forwards. When a narrative transitions from media to interpersonal conversation, it's entering its most powerful phase.
适用场景: 早期趋势发现、PR危机预警
10. Counter-Narrative Timing / 反叙事时机
When a dominant narrative reaches saturation (everyone's talking about it), prepare for its opposite to emerge within 3-6 months. Narrative exhaustion creates a vacuum that the counter-narrative fills.
适用场景: 逆向投资时机、预测舆论反转
使用方式 / Usage Examples
示例一 (中文)
输入: "最近所有人都在说AI会取代所有工作，朋友圈、抖音、新闻全是这个话题，连我爸妈都在问。这是不是过度恐慌了？"
匹配原则: 原则1（叙事流行病检测）+ 原则9（口口相传系数）+ 原则8（叙事变异追踪）
输出:
- 叙事诊断: "AI取代工作"叙事已从媒体层进入人际传播层（原则9信号），处于传播曲线的加速期
- 变异分析: 当前的主流变体是"全面取代"（极端版本），原始叙事"AI改变工作方式"已发生显著变异（原则8）
- 聚合检测: 该叙事与"经济下行"+"年轻人就业难"形成叙事星座（原则2），共振放大效应正在发生
- 行动建议: (1) 叙事已接近阶段性高点，预计3-4个月内会出现反叙事（原则10）；(2) 区分叙事中的信号与噪声：部分岗位确实面临自动化（真实的），但"全面取代"是叙事夸张；(3) 关注实际就业数据与叙事的差距（原则7），当恐慌叙事与稳定就业数据背离时，叙事修正窗口打开
示例二 (English)
Input: "Crypto prices are surging again. Everyone on Twitter is saying this bull run will be bigger than 2021. My Uber driver was talking about buying Dogecoin. Is this a bubble?"
Matching Principles: Principle 1 (Epidemic Detection) + Principle 4 (Perennial Narrative) + Principle 6 (Celebrity Contagion) + Principle 9 (Word-of-Mouth)
Output:
- Narrative Diagnosis: The "crypto super-cycle" narrative is in late acceleration / early saturation phase. Uber driver mentions = Principle 9 signal (interpersonal spread is saturated)
- Perennial Check: "This time is different" (Principle 4) has appeared in every crypto cycle. Previous peaks: Dec 2017, Nov 2021. Current narrative structure is nearly identical to 2021
- Celebrity Vector: Track whether celebrity endorsements are accelerating or decelerating (Principle 6). If new celebrity entries are slowing, the narrative may be peaking
- Action Recommendation: (1) You are likely in the late stage of the narrative epidemic — not the optimal entry point; (2) Watch for the Action-Narrative Gap (Principle 7): when price action diverges from narrative intensity, reversal is near; (3) Prepare for the counter-narrative (Principle 10): "crypto is a manipulated casino" will resurge when this narrative exhausts
FAQ / 常见问题
Q1: 这和传统的市场情绪分析有什么区别？ / How is this different from market sentiment analysis?
EN: Sentiment analysis measures what people feel (bullish/bearish). Narrative economics analyzes why they feel it — the stories driving the sentiment. It's the causal layer beneath sentiment. You use sentiment for timing; you use narrative analysis to understand what comes next after sentiment shifts.
中文: 情绪分析衡量人们感受什么（看涨/看跌）。叙事经济学分析为什么有这种感受——驱动情绪的故事。它是情绪之下的因果层。你用情绪分析把握时机，用叙事分析理解情绪转变后接下来会发生什么。
Q2: 叙事分析需要什么数据？ / What data does narrative analysis need?
EN: You need qualitative signals: (1) social media conversation volume and velocity, (2) news headline framing analysis, (3) cultural reference adoption (memes, slang), (4) survey vs. behavior gap data, (5) celebrity/influencer narrative adoption. You don't need perfect data — pattern recognition works with partial information.
中文: 你需要定性信号：(1) 社交媒体讨论量和速度，(2) 新闻标题框架分析，(3) 文化符号采用（表情包、流行语），(4) 调查与行为差距数据，(5) 名人/意见领袖的叙事采用。不需要完美数据——模式识别可以在信息不完整时工作。
Q3: 这个技能适合个人投资者吗？ / Is this skill suitable for individual investors?
EN: Yes, but as a risk management tool, not a trading signal generator. Its highest value is helping you recognize when you're caught in a narrative epidemic and about to make an emotionally-driven decision. It's better at saying "be careful now" than "buy now."
中文: 是的，但作为风险管理工具而非交易信号生成器。它的最大价值是帮你识别自己是否被叙事流行病裹挟、即将做出情绪驱动的决策。它更擅长说"现在要小心"而不是"现在买入"。
Q4: 叙事变化和价格变化哪个先发生？ / Which comes first, narrative shift or price shift?
EN: Narratives typically lead prices by weeks to months, but the relationship is non-linear. A narrative can build for a long time before prices move, then prices can overshoot while the narrative continues. The key signal is divergence: when narrative and price move in opposite directions.
中文: 叙事通常领先价格数周到数月，但关系是非线性的。叙事可以长期累积而价格不动，然后价格在叙事持续时过度反应。关键信号是背离：当叙事和价格走向相反方向时。
Q5: 和其他策略类Skill（如孙子兵法）有什么区别？ / How is this different from other strategy skills?
EN: Sun Tzu focuses on deliberate competitive strategy. Shiller focuses on emergent, decentralized narrative dynamics that no single actor controls. Use Sun Tzu when you're planning your own moves. Use Shiller when you're trying to understand where the crowd is going and why.
中文: 孙子兵法聚焦于有意识的竞争策略。希勒聚焦于涌现的、去中心化的叙事动力，没有单一行动者可以控制。用孙子兵法规划你自己的行动；用希勒理解群体走向何方及为什么。
反模式 / Anti-Patterns
❌ 反模式1：用叙事分析替代基本面分析
叙事分析是补充工具，不是替代品。不要在需要看财报、算估值的时候只分析叙事。正确的用法：先做好基本面功课，再用叙事分析判断市场是否过度反应。
❌ 反模式2：把每个新闻都当叙事
单个新闻事件 ≠ 经济叙事。叙事是反复出现的、有情感共鸣的故事模板。如果一个"故事"没有在3个以上独立渠道被自发传播，它可能只是一个新闻，不是叙事。
❌ 反模式3：忽视自己的叙事偏差
分析者本人也在叙事之中。当你发现自己坚定看多/看空时，反问：我是不是也中了某个叙事？用原则10检查：如果所有人都和我想法一样，反叙事是否已在酝酿？
文件结构 / File Structure
shiller-narrative-economics/
├── SKILL.md # 主技能文件（本文件）
└── knowledge/
└── principles.md # 10条原则详细释义（中英双语，300+字/条）
